04 May.
Vehicle sales: Total vehicle sales fall sharply on seasonal factors.
- Total vehicle sales fell by a sharp 28 % m-o-m in April with all categories of sales down sharply, reflecting mainly fewer business days during the month and the higher base established in the first quarter of this year.
- On an annual basis sales were higher, confirming the underlying improvement in the vehicle market during recent months.
- Passenger car sales will continue to benefit from low interest rates and income growth during 2011, although high household indebtedness, a weak labour market and rising cost pressures will restrict the rate of recovery. The gradual recovery in fixed investment activity should support sales of commercial vehicles.
- We expect the repo rate to remain steady throughout 2011, despite rising cost-push inflationary pressures. However, upside risks have increased, but much will depend on developments in international oil prices, the rand and the rate of economic recovery.
Comment
Total vehicle sales were significantly lower in April following strong increases in the first three months of this year. This mainly reflected seasonal factors and the high base established in earlier months. April had three holidays, which impacted negatively on trading.
Passenger vehicle sales dropped by 25,1% m-o-m, falling from a four-year high, but they remained relatively strong on an annual basis, rising by 11,7%. Commercial vehicle sales were also weak, down by 33,3% m-o-m and up by only 0,7% y-o-y, with the monthly figure having dropped from a three year high.
Vehicle exports plunged by 34,0% m-o-m as passenger and commercial vehicle exports slumped by 26,5% and 46,8% during the month, respectively. On an annual basis total exports were up by 12,7% y-o-y, with passenger vehicles down by 3,5% y-o-y while exports of commercial vehicles surged by 90,3% y-o-y, reflecting the low base in the same month last year. …
Source: Nedbank
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