Composite business cycle indicators for South Africa

22 Sep.

Composite business cycle indicators for South Africa.

• The composite leading business cycle indicator decreased by 0,9 per cent in July 2011 compared with the preceding month. Six of the ten component time series that were available for July 2011 decreased, while four increased. The major negative contributors to the movement in the leading indicator in July were the twelve-month percentage change in job advertisement space and the business confidence index. The largest positive contribution came from the six-month smoothed growth rate in the real M1 money supply, followed by the prices of all classes of shares traded on the JSE.
• The composite coincident business cycle indicator increased by 0,5 per cent in June 2011 compared with the preceding month, resuming its upward trend.
• The composite lagging business cycle indicator increased by 1,5 per cent in June 2011 compared with the preceding month.

  BCI Data – September 2011.xls    Press release – September 2011.pdf