14 Nov.
Absa: SA Morning Sheet.
This is a daily economic comment …
The sheets can be downloaded daily from Absa Economic Research
An extract fro today’s sheet is provided as an example:
In a relatively quiet week on the South African data calendar, the focus turns to the demand-side of the economy with the release of retail sales figures for September on Wednesday. We are broadly in line with Bloomberg consensus (cf. 6.5% y/y) in looking for headline growth to have moderated to 6.4% y/y from 7.1% in August. Despite the expected moderation, we believe that growth in line with consensus is still respectable in the current economic climate and continues to reflect the supportive climate for consumption, provided by low interest rates, high nominal income levels and manageable inflation.
Even more important than headline growth will be the momentum growth managed to record in the quarter. Therefore, we will be keeping a very close eye on the q/q seasonally adjusted and annualised growth in this week’s report. As of August, this figure was sitting at +3.0%, and we expect this to have remained positive in September.
The September retail sales figures will therefore give us a better understanding as to what the trade sector likely contributed to SA Q3 GDP growth and completes the picture in terms of our Q3 GDP tracking estimate. Given last week’s manufacturing and mining production figures, which showed that supply-side sectors are likely to remain a drag on growth, demand-side sectors, such as retail trade, are likely to show that this side of the economy remains the backbone of SA growth prospects. Barring any significant surprises in this week’s retail figures, our 1.3% q/q saar tracking estimate for Q3 GDP growth remains intact. …
The sheets can be downloaded daily from Absa Economic Research
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