Nedbank: Guide to the Economy

Nedbank Guide to the Economy – December 2011.

International background and outlook.

The global economic climate remains very vulnerable. Growth in developed countries continues to be hampered by high government debt levels, impaired banking systems and weak confidence. The worsening Eurozone crisis has made at least a mild recession in that region very likely and prospects elsewhere are modest. The United States has seen some rebound in growth, but this is unlikely to last into 2012 given its own fiscal problems and unresolved issues in the housing market. Developing world growth has slowed and is likely to disappoint in the coming quarters. In particular, those countries with close trade and financial ties to Europe and the United States will experience slowdowns.

Domestic review and prospects.

Local economic growth has remained weak, hurt by the deteriorating global environment and weak confidence levels. Primary and secondary activity moderated further over the third quarter in response to the difficult conditions. In contrast, consumer spending has remained relatively robust, buoyed by good disposable income growth. Prospects for the year ahead are heavily dependent on what happens internationally. Some moderation in growth now seems likely.

Facts and forecasts.

Annual

Quarterly  …

See the full Guide to the Economy